On January 29, the White House declared a state of national emergency. The emergency in question? Cuba’s threat to American national security. According to the Trump administration, Cuba provides support for hostile American adversaries, such as “malign actors adverse to the United States” such as members of the Government of the Russian Federation, along with other hostile regimes, claiming they pose a threat to important national security intelligence who attempt to “destabilize the Western Hemisphere.” The consequences? A Cuban oil blockade which intends to cut off the Caribbean island from its oil and petroleum sources.
Cuba has historically relied on oil imports from allies such as Venezuela, Mexico, and Russia. The island nation relies heavily on oil imports accounting for 32% of its national oil consumption. However, its consumption is far too high to sustain itself without imports, as Worldometers predicts that Cuba will only have 3 years of extractable oil left if it remains without imports. Despite this, Cuba continues to extract its domestic oil at rates exceeding its limited proven oil reserves.
Conditions of the Blockade
Following his statement, the conditions of Trump’s Cuban oil blockade include a strict monitoring of oil sales to Cuba and economic sanctions for countries that sell or facilitate oil to them: “an additional ad valorem duty may be imposed on imports of goods that are products of a foreign country that directly or indirectly sells or otherwise provides any oil to Cuba.” In other words, the United States will economically punish states that sell oil to Cuba, either directly or through the use of a third-party intermediary.
Consequences of the Blockade
Within Cuba, the effects of the blockade have already been felt. Several airlines have completely halted flights to Cuba, amid fears of reduced refuelling capacities. This, along with the halting of tourist services and the fleeing of tourists themselves, caused a grave economic shock to Cuba. As is the case in most economic crises, locals are the most vulnerable victims. The country faces an urgent need for affordable fuel alternatives as it experiences regular blackouts and weakened hospital capacities, including cancelled surgeries, and a shortage of medical supplies and antibiotics.
International Compliance with the Blockade
In light of the White House’s declaration of the oil blockade, Cuba’s president, Miguel Díaz-Canel, holds that “not a single drop of oil has entered the island in 2026.” Compliance with Trump’s blockade among Cuba’s usual exporters is mixed and difficult to gauge. While Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum initially rejected the blockade, calling on its humanitarian implications for Cuban civilians, it remains unclear whether Mexico has sent oil to Cuba since the beginning of the blockade. It is confirmed, however, that the Mexican President has sent more than 800 tons of aid to Cuba since the blockade, reflecting Mexico’s commitment to diplomatic solutions. Furthermore, since the US capture of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro, the current sitting President and former Vice President of Venezuela, Delcy Rodriguez, since pledged her cooperation with the US, thus confirming that Cuba has not received Venezuelan oil since the beginning of the blockade. Russia, on the other hand, strongly stated its noncompliance with the US blockade, even meeting with Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez Parrilla, pledging to send crude oil products and humanitarian aid to the island.
Trump’s Goal
Many view Trump’s embargo as an attempt to weaken the Cuban government’s sovereignty, likely leading to Cuban concessions along the line. Equally as important, though, is the existing context of US embargoes on Cuba, which, since the 1960s, has banned all financial transactions with Cuba without US Treasury authorization, leaving a worsening humanitarian situation in the import-reliant country. For the future, Trump’s exact demands remain ambiguous. The White House’s statement does seem to invoke Cold War imagery, calling for a united ‘Western Hemisphere.’ However, Trump’s positions on other world issues, like Ukraine, seem to contradict his desire for a return to the Cold War order. His exact geopolitical reasoning, if any, will unfold over the coming weeks as Cuba continues to manage the crisis.
Edited by Lily Christopoulos
Disclaimer: This is an article written by a Staff Writer. Catalyst is a student-led platform that fosters engagement with global issues from a learning perspective. The opinions expressed above do not necessarily reflect the views of the publication.
Dala is in her third year at McGill, pursuing an Honours B.A in International Development Studies with a double minor in Political Science and World Islamic and Middle East Studies. She is particularly interested in the politics of the Middle East and North Africa, and immigration.