Excerpt: Sheinbaum has come to take his place. For much of her career, Sheinbaum and López Obrador have maintained a close and amicable relationship; some have called him her mentor. Such a relationship raises an important question: will Sheinbaum forge ahead with green climate reform or will she succumb to the legacy of her predecessor?
Politics have resounding effects on climate change. Both domestic and international politics shape normative beliefs and can influence industries and individuals alike, either toward a cleaner, greener direction or not. Climate change legislation has been a trending, controversial topic of late, with some world leaders calling for massive environmental reform, and others denying that climate change is an existential threat or even real at all. This spectrum of beliefs is what makes climate change mitigation so difficult. Such difficulties have been experienced in Mexico, which has a rather rocky climate policy track record. Claudia Sheinbaum’s recent election as Mexico’s first female president has significant implications for the country’s climate policies, as the president-elect worked as an energy engineer and climate scientist prior to running for office. Sheinbaum’s publicly-stated position of climate progress, however, must still be solidified into policy to be meaningful. While the election of a climate change proponent is monumental and offers a great deal of hope for the nation’s previously unambitious targets, a certain level of skepticism is not undue, given her predecessor’s and Mexico’s lamentable policy history in this field.
As with several other countries in the region, many of Mexico’s environmental issues can be traced back to the 16th century, to the arrival of Spanish colonizers. Plantation systems, deforestation, and mining contributed to mass biodiversity loss and land degradation. As technology advanced, so too came the exploitation of fossil fuels across the globe. Mexico’s geographical position has made it especially vulnerable to certain issues due to the fact that “normal” temperature ranges near the equator are small, and that any sort of climate variation has a larger effect there than in temperate regions. These challenges include clean water provision, erosion, and air pollution, amongst others.
Mexico first began its climate legislation efforts in 1987 with a constitutional amendment that permitted Congress to enforce environmental laws and regulations. This amendment helped bring about policies such as the General Ecology Law, which addressed issues such as pollution control, resource conservation, and mass investment projects along the U.S.-Mexico border. However, in recent decades, the country has been falling short of its environmental goals in numerous ways. For example, while Mexico’s General Climate Change Law, adopted in 2012, provides baseline strategies and frameworks for tackling climate change, it does not include specific enforceable policies and has been continuously undermined by funding and committee cuts approved by Sheinbaum’s predecessor.
According to the Climate Action Tracker, Mexico has been failing to meet its nationally determined contributions (NDCs), which consist of countries’ plans to adhere to Paris Agreement targets. The country submitted an updated NDC in 2020 that was quickly rejected in 2021 owing to its lesser ambition and transparency than its 2016 counterpart. Indeed, in its 2016 commitment, Mexico pledged to reduce emissions by 22% below a “business as usual [BAU] scenario” come 2030. In 2020, the new NDC maintained this same goal; however, the criteria for a BAU scenario has since changed, increasing the estimated BAU emissions. As a result, the targets outlined by the 2020 NDC, which maintained the same percentage as the 2016 one, would have permitted higher emissions.
Most of these unambitious targets can be attributed to the country’s most recent government, headed by Andrés Manuel López Obrador. President López Obrador has been in office since 2018 and has since approved many such disappointing and regressive measures, including the dissolution of Mexico’s National Insitute for Climate Change, a hub of research and environmental capacity building. Further, he supported the construction of a new oil refinery in Dos Bocas, a $16 billion project that has gone significantly over budget since its inception.
Now, Sheinbaum has come to take his place. For much of her career, Sheinbaum and López Obrador have maintained a close and amicable relationship; some have called him her mentor. Such a relationship raises an important question: will Sheinbaum forge ahead with green climate reform or will she succumb to the legacy of her predecessor? Much of her campaign was predicated on the promise of energy transition progress, reduced greenhouse gas emissions, and the electrification of public transport. However, like her predecessor, Sheinbaum has supported oil refineries; her energy plan seeks to invest billions in renewables but also maintains Mexico’s involvement in the natural gas industry.
Discussions about the clean energy transition are often characterized by the opposition of the economy and environment. Notably, popular backlash often results from green policies due to a fear, fueled by fossil fuel industry lobbyists, that such changes would bring about a tremendous loss of jobs and/or stall the economy, harming the general population. In Mexico’s case, it is true that the natural gas industry employs hundreds of thousands of citizens. However, what many fail to consider is that a plentitude of job opportunities exist in the renewable sector. Renewable energy sources reduce dependence on imports, diversify the domestic energy supply, and create jobs in other areas such as installation and manufacturing. The myth of “economy vs environment” is a common one; however, going forward, it is imperative that world leaders like the Mexican president-elect deconstruct false oppositions such as this one, and take radical steps towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
If Sheinbaum truly aims to propel Mexico forward, as she has claimed, Mexico might stand a better chance of achieving its Paris Agreement targets. However, many politicians worldwide have made promises during their electoral campaigns that were forgotten the moment they were elected to office; what is to say that Sheinbaum will be any different about seeking industry appeasement over meaningful change? One can only hope that Mexico’s new president will put her environmental background to use and enact positive reform for the country’s, and the world’s sake.
Edited By Jamie Silverman
