The Russian invasion of Ukraine, which began in February 2022, surprised many. Yet, those living in the Western world seem to have forgotten about the conflict until now, for very good reasons. Kim Jong-un, the so-called “Supreme Leader” of North Korea, has now pledged roughly 12,000 troops to fight against Ukraine. This recent effort shows how much the consequences of this war meant not only for Russia but also for other countries around the world, so much so that they got involved in the fighting themselves. The war has been known to have global implications, specifically in the oil and agricultural sectors, majorly affecting oil pricing and grain shortages, but never has another country gotten directly involved with boots on the ground until this point. What’s in it for North Korea?
Considering the direction Russia has taken in the past two and a half years, both regarding their military decisions and their geopolitical ties, North Korea’s recent involvement should not come as a surprise. Russia is reliant on exporting oil and gas to China, exchanging hundreds of drones, missiles, and other pieces of military equipment with Iran, and now taking in thousands of North Korean troops to aid them in their grinding war of attrition. While it is true that Iran and China have been helping Russia stay on its feet, neither has actually sent troops. For the past two and a half years, it seemed as if Russian troops would be fighting the Ukrainians alone. That has since changed.
American and South Korean intelligence estimated on November 1, 2024, that the number of North Korean troops deployed to Russia to prepare to fight was about ten thousand, with an approximate error of two thousand. This means that there could have been anywhere between eight and twelve thousand North Korean soldiers on Russian soil at the time that estimation was made. The first reported combat against Ukrainian forces came in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, where Ukrainian forces made a notable incursion in August, crossing Putin’s “red line” that, for all intents and purposes, doesn’t really exist.
To create some possible “plausible deniability,” the first wave of North Korean boots and guns on the ground have been reserved for attempting to dislodge the Ukrainian salient in Kursk. This way, Vladimir Putin can argue that the North Koreans are simply there to help enforce Russian territorial integrity as a faithful ally. However, this does nothing to change the equation. Fighting against the Ukrainians, regardless of whether or not the fight takes place on Russian soil, marks an escalation in the war. Putin, of course, has talked a big game about the Western bloc’s “escalation” when they sent more aid to Ukraine, but no Western country has ever, in the history of the Russo-Ukrainian war, sent combat forces to “enforce the territorial integrity of Ukraine as a faithful ally.” If they directly send ground forces themselves, that would be, according to the Russians at least, grounds for justifying direct involvement and thus becoming susceptible to a nuclear strike.
However, the North Koreans likely will not have the ability to change the big picture of the war. If anything, North Korea’s involvement may actually benefit the West. Not only have North Korean forces never actually fought in a war since the Korean War in 1953, but many are poorly equipped, malnourished, and reportedly addicted to pornography. Though the North Korean special forces could certainly pack a punch, the troops they have sent to Russia are equivalent to less than two week’s worth of combat losses for the Russians. This means that if solely North Korean contingents were fighting on the Russian side, all members would likely be dead or wounded in less than two weeks. As an added bonus, South Korea, which has yet to provide Ukraine with any significant military aid despite large pressure from the US, is now considering sending several troops of its own to Ukraine. Their aim is not only to spy on the North Koreans, which they have decades of experience doing, but also to serve as interrogators in questioning North Korean prisoners of war taken by the Ukrainians. Learning how the North Koreans fight and how their military works would be a jackpot for the South Koreans, who would then likely pass every bit of information to the US.
However, the North Koreans also have something to gain by involving themselves in this conflict. Perhaps sending what is considered such a small number of troops in the context of this war isn’t to make a dent in Ukrainian lines but to learn what happens when they try. After all, while it is true that North Korea hasn’t been to war since 1953, partnering up with Russia gives them the chance to catch up on what they’ve missed. Fighting in Ukraine, even while costing them a considerable price, can significantly assist North Korean military planners in the future when preparing for a modern war, upgrading and augmenting whatever military equipment they have to go with right now. Additionally, the Russians have promised to share with them their expertise in rocket, space, and missile technology, something the Russians have long excelled at. This would then answer the question of what’s in it for Kim Jong-un, for if he is able to get Russia to assist North Korea in staying afloat just by sending a relatively low number of troops to fight in Putin’s war, not only does he get some shiny new toys to play around with, he also gains the necessary strategic experience to go up against South Korea and the US in the future.
Yet combining Russian and North Korean military power may not only not be enough, but it might also backfire. China is reportedly concerned that they can no longer control and contain the North Koreans, something they’ve been able to do in the past. As a result of China’s frustration, the US has taken the opportunity to reach out to China to offer to work together in an attempt to further contain North Korean impulsiveness. Furthermore, North Korean military equipment in the form of missiles and artillery shells that have already been supplied to Russia for some time now are notoriously inaccurate and unreliable. Regardless of whether the North Koreans are well-versed in modern war or not, what they fight with matters; given that North Korea is currently supplying Russia with artillery shells, it means that Russia does not necessarily have the capacity to give North Korea much military aid anytime soon. The only thing that the North Koreans can offer are numbers, which can indeed put the Ukrainians in a tougher spot if they want to win the war. However, considering how well they have done against what was once considered the world’s second-best military, it should not be too much of a problem for Ukraine to face the new North Korean threat. With these troops coming in relatively small numbers and the soldiers having no personal stakes in the Russian cause, the North Korean troops provide a relatively small threat to the Ukrainians in the grand scheme of things.
The Ukrainians, nevertheless, still undoubtedly find themselves in a tough spot. The Russians have at long last taken Vuhledar in the south and are encroaching on the extremely pivotal Pokrovsk in the east, and now they have help from the North Koreans to do more. As of the time this article has been written, North Korean troops have only been operating in Russia and not (yet) in Ukraine. Still, the reason why the prospect of North Koreans fighting in Ukraine itself has been largely omitted from this writing is because, frankly, it doesn’t matter where in this war they fight. They will get the same results regardless of where they fight Ukrainian troops. Sure, it would be significant if they crossed into Ukraine, but how would that change anything? It’s not like all of a sudden; the whole front line is going to collapse just because a few thousand extra troops showed up. To all those worried about this, I would advise calm and caution. It is an escalation, no question about it, but how it plays out matters. Only time will tell what the real impact of this situation will eventually be. From what we can see right now, it is already not looking terribly good for either the Russians or the North Koreans, and no amount of bilateral collaboration could fundamentally change that to a large enough extent for Putin to achieve his imperialistic goals.
Edited by Campbell Graham
This is an opinion article written by a Staff Writer. Catalyst is a student-led platform that fosters engagement with global issues from a learning perspective. The opinions expressed above do not necessarily reflect the views of the publication.
Oliver “Ollie” Scott-Hansen is an undergraduate student at McGill University studying history and Russian language, hailing from just outside New York City, yet maintaining similarly strong ties to his familial heritage in north and central Italy. He joined the Catalyst team in Fall 2024 as a staff writer, something he enjoys doing as a hobby as well. With a particularly vested interest in Eastern Europe, the post-USSR world, and the Russo-Ukrainian war, coupled with his various connections throughout the global international relations space, Ollie reports on issues throughout the world that mostly center around key geopolitical developments in contentious places mostly involving war/conflict, and domestic affairs within the United States. He has experience mainly reporting from Telegram, carefully analyzing the Russian Invasion of Ukraine through his updates forum there, but also spends considerable amounts of his free time glued to maps and statistics trying to make sense of the crazy world that surrounds our day-to-day lives.