Today, Lebanon is feeling the effects of a war it is fighting against no one, but itself. Its economy has plummeted, with unemployment rising to nearly 40% by the end of 2020 and the Lebanese Pound dropping in value by nearly 90% as of September 2021. Many vital resources have also disappeared from shelves, including medicines, and food prices have risen over 340%. The economy is not the only thing that is suffering, however. Social unrest has been a key repercussion of everything that has gone on over the past two years. A sense of lawlessness has erupted and altercations between different ethnic groups have become increasingly prevalent for the first time in over 30 years, corresponding to the end of the last major internal crisis the nation of Lebanon has dealt with.
For about 20 years in the latter half of the 20th century, Lebanon was, in fact, actually at war with itself. The Lebanese Civil War was known as one of the world’s worst at the time, resulting in over 100,000 deaths. It was an effect of surmounting tensions in the nation following its independence from France between the multiple ethnic groups that constituted its population — Maronite Christians, Sunni Muslims, Shia Muslims, and the Druze. During the conflict, the four main belligerents consisted of the Lebanese Front (LF) who represented the traditionally right-wing Maronite Christians, the Lebanese National Movement (LNM) who represented the left-wing as well as the nation’s Sunni Muslims, the Lebanese Resistance Detachments (Amal) who represented the Shia Muslims, and finally the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) who represented the interests of the Palestinian refugee community inside of Lebanon.
The war lasted 15 years altogether and produced wounds that the Lebanese people are still recovering from today. The start of the conflict is dated back to April 13, 1975, marked by an attack on a bus transporting Palestinian refugees carried out by a Maronite Christian militia. This sparked animosity between the PLO, Lebanese Front, and the LNM who at the time supported the Palestinian cause. As the fighting increased, the conflict deepened. Later additions of outside forces to the war, such as Syria and Israel, as well as the addition of numerous domestic militias only fostered more of a predicament for the crumbling Arab state. For the coming decade and a half, Lebanon saw its political, social, and economic domains fall gravely into disarray before the eventual introduction of a new system of governance at the end of the war — the one still in use to this day.
In late 1989, a resolution to the instability was reached in Ta’if, Saudi Arabia where members of the Lebanese Parliament decided to adopt a different scope within their government. The government already included a Maronite Christian president, a Sunni Muslim prime minister, and a Shia Muslim speaker of parliament. Under the circumstances, the subsequent reforms significantly reduced the powers of the president, while increasing the powers of the prime minister and speaker of parliament. Thereafter, however, there existed a variety of issues that came as a result of this accord, such as the assassination of the first president following the war, René Moawad, only 17 days after he was elected. The dust finally settled, at least temporarily, in 2005 when alliances were finally formed between the Maronites, Sunnis, and Shias of the nation and the country was able to slowly move forward.
The past decade, however, for Lebanon has been tough. Political instability has accentuated the past few years, with the nation’s most recent Prime Minister delegate Saad Hariri resigning nearly nine months after he was appointed and popular uprisings and protests highlighting the civic scene. Moreover, Lebanon has been headlining the news for events such as the unforeseen Beirut blast that took place in August of 2020. This chaotic atmosphere has come at the expense of none other than the nation’s economy. A non-functional government coupled with dramatic and unfortunate events have led to the steep decline of a once fairly stable economy.
This correlation of events happens in both directions, however. As the economy fell due to political disarray and social disorder, it only seems that that is simply adding to the already insurmountable climate in the nation. Unfortunately today the situation in Lebanon looks eerily similar to that of just prior to the eventual descent into civil war, and the country’s social troubles are at the forefront of this perception. Although politics and the economy play a sizeable role in the spirit of Lebanon, it is its people and their ideas that ultimately call the shots. Recently, this has not reflected well. On October 14, the worst street violence in decades was reported in Beirut. Following this, accusations have turned ethnic and subsequently political and detrimental. Following past trends, the accumulation of such occurrences is inevitable and one can only hope for the avoidance of what happened in the same country less than half a century ago.
With all the factors that eventually culminated in the Lebanese Civil War, one can only fear the outcomes of the current political and economic crises. It would be foolish to rule out the possibility of a second war, but it does not seem very likely. Since the 1970’s, a lot has changed in Lebanon. For example, even as there are many foreign interests at play in the Lebanese political environment, it is not enough to start a war. The PLO is no longer a major force in the nation, Syria is already in its own conflict, the world’s eyes are on Israel, and the people of Lebanon are not ready for another war. Second, Lebanon’s government is functional and it can be argued that it is not the system, but the people in positions of power within the system that are causing this mayhem. Social unrest is indicative of a change in system at times, yet what needs to be changed in the nation can be changed without the need to take up arms. The future cannot be predicted. However, if there is one assessment to make about the situation in Lebanon, it is that the current crisis must be solved in order for a sense of peace and stability to return to the nation that has yearned for some semblance of it since its formation.
Edited by Riyana Karim Hajiani
Santhindu Wijesooriya is a second-year student at McGill University. He is pursuing a major in Honours International Development Studies and minors in both Political Science and Social Entrepreneurship. Santhindu is currently a Team Coordinator and Staff Writer for Catalyst and looks to grow his knowledge and experience in International Development through his experience with us.