Disclaimer: Most of this article was written before the start of the October 7th war and is now updated to reflect current circumstances before publication. News sources with comprehensive, up-to-date live coverage of the ongoing Israel-Hamas war and humanitarian crisis in Gaza include Reuters, the New York Times, Al-Jazeera, and Foreign Affairs.
Just this March of 2023, in what would be impossible a few years ago, Saudi Arabia and Iran restored diplomatic relations. This detente was considered groundbreaking, as it ended years of hostility and proxy war between the two countries. However, recent sit-down interviews with Prince Mohammed Bin Salman of Saudi Arabia and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel suggest the possibility of an even more significant diplomatic deal in the Middle East after both leaders revealed ongoing negotiations for normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Normalization is the process of two countries establishing diplomatic ties and relations. In contrast to Iran’s deal, where China was the mediator, in this deal, it is the United States of America.
Furthermore, elements of this deal could have geopolitical results that can significantly change the balance of power in the Middle East. In updating with recent events, the Israel-Hamas war that has started since October 7th has cast considerable doubt on the viability of this deal. However, President Joe Biden still believes that normalization is possible, citing the security normalization would provide the region if successful.
Saudi Arabia has maintained its policy of refusing to recognize nor support any diplomatic relationship with Israel since 1947 and has been instrumental in bolstering political and economic support for Palestinian statehood. Another 27 countries have also refused to recognize Israel in the United Nations, many of whom cite Palestinian occupation as their primary concern. If Saudi Arabia and Israel successfully normalize diplomatic ties, other countries in the region may follow suit. Israeli foreign minister Eli Cohen stipulated that six or even seven Muslim-majority countries can normalize relations with Israel if Saudi Arabia does so successfully. Prince Mohammed Bin Salman has claimed that in negotiating this deal, there has to be meaningful concessions raised for the Palestinian cause. Such concessions have not been specified in detail; in previous normalization deals, like under the Abraham Accords of 2020, the United Arab Emirates included promises to delay annexation of the West Bank when negotiating normalization with Israel. However, such promises were not kept by Israel, as settlements in the West Bank have only increased after the Abraham Accords.
It is worth noting the leading superpower brokering this deal is the United States of America, particularly President Joe Biden’s administration. The success of this deal can reinforce the United States’ waning position in the region as a means to challenge the current achievements of the Chinese-mediated deal between Iran and Saudi, as well as China’s blooming global presence. The historic significance of this deal can also allow President Joe Biden to boost support before he runs for re-election in 2024. The Biden Administration has been negotiating a bilateral NATO-style military arrangement with Saudi Arabia, as well as providing new military technology. A NATO-style military agreement would entail US intervention if any foreign entity ever militarily attacks Saudi Arabia.
Additionally, the Biden administration has also been negotiating a future civilian nuclear program for Saudi Arabia, and in his recent interview with Fox News, Prince Mohammed Bin Salman expressed Saudi Arabia’s strong willingness to attain nuclear weapons if Iran creates one first, as a deterrent to keep Saudi Arabia safe. Such rapid nuclearization of the Middle East could be a cause of geopolitical concern, as it can quickly escalate into a regional arms race, igniting a global security issue.
There are also concerns among US officials that giving Saudi Arabia a future NATO-style arrangement may provoke Iran, as such a military arrangement has never been provided to any state in the Middle East before. Even Israel, the US’s closest ally in the region, does not benefit from this type of formal arrangement. Additionally, lawmakers are also worried about the cost it may incur for the US to support such an arrangement in the long term. Furthermore, the provided military aid would bolster the Saudi military to the same technological level as the Israeli military; as such, Saudi Arabia would then maintain a superior military stance in the region while also aligning itself closer to Israel and the United States as allies rather than China and Iran. The Biden administration hopes that in fulfilling Prince Mohammed Bin Salman’s requests, they will be successful in distancing the Kingdom from Chinese influence, as well as ensuring Saudi’s commitment to selling oil in US dollars.
Iran has reacted to the potential conciliation with predictable discontent, as such a deal can undermine their diplomatic progress with Saudi Arabia. Iran’s geopolitical power is unquestionable, as it plays a central geopolitical role in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia and Iran have engaged in proxy warfare in the Yemeni civil war, after which Iran-backed Houthi rebels have fired rockets into Saudi territories over 400 times since 2015. Saudi Arabia and Iran’s rivalry has been a driving factor for many political decisions, and this normalization conveys Saudi Arabia’s strategic need to remain safe from a potential nuclear Iran and future attacks. Despite their developing diplomatic relationship, Prince Mohammed Bin Salman does not seem convinced that Iran is a reliable ally, following years of hostile rivalry and challenges to Saudi dominance in the region.
The current far-right Israeli coalition government under PM Netanyahu has made the annexation of the West Bank one of its main political objectives, which raises doubts among Palestinians on whether their rights will be considered. US Democratic senators have expressed willingness to grant concessions to Palestinians in the mediation with Israel and Saudi, with 20 senators writing a letter urging President Biden to ensure the option of a two-state solution is still viable. Furthermore, for the first time since 1967, Riyadh has sent an envoy of diplomats to the West Bank, a promising gesture for the Palestinian cause. Public support for Palestinian emancipation in the Middle East remains steadfast, which makes it pivotal that any deal between Saudi and Israel must include concessions for Palestinian statehood.
In a sudden turn of events, on October 7th, Hamas and Israel had an exchange of rockets that inflicted a high number of casualties on both Palestinian and Israeli civilians. As of late, this has escalated into a war between Hamas militants and Israel after Hamas militants from Gaza captured Israeli bases and settlements in the surrounding areas, resulting in an Israeli on-ground counter-offensive as well as increased airstrikes in the Gaza Strip; Saudi Arabia has called for de-escalation while taking a direct stance with the Palestinian cause against Israeli occupation. PM Netanyahu has begun counter-offensive measures against the Gaza strip in retaliation, declaring his measures as a war against Hamas; this potentially strains any chances of Israel taking demands of Palestinian emancipation from Saudi Arabia seriously, thus jeopardizing the normalization entirely. There is also a looming dread of a potential regional conflict that may entangle other states, such as Iran and Lebanon. As of October 30th, there are 6836 Israeli and 21408 Palestinian casualties.
The current escalations of conflict in Gaza have almost certainly delayed the prospects of a near-future Saudi Arabian and Israeli normalization deal. Furthermore, under such conditions, it is doubtful that PM Netanyahu will be comfortable considering concessions to establish the foundations of a future Palestinian state if any deal is still on the table. Saudi Arabia and the Muslim world’s resilient solidarity with the Palestinian cause in the ongoing war may also delay the prospect of any deal soon, as the current Israeli offensive in the Gaza Strip has inflicted huge losses as well as a resource and aid blockade. As the Hamas-Israel war continues, the devastating asymmetrical loss of Palestinian life in the Gaza Strip, the majority of whom are civilians, will be a decisive consideration for Saudi Arabia in moving any discussion of normalization forward with Israel.
Edited by Amina Kudrati-Plummer
Waleed is a fourth-year Political Science and History student. Being a Pakistani who was born and raised in Saudi Arabia, his third-culture upbringing lends itself to where his areas of interest lie: international relations and politics in the Middle East and South Asia, with a specific interest in imperialism in the Global South.