2021 marked the 30-year anniversary of Ukraine’s declaration of independence from Russia. While a celebratory milestone, it also highlights the ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine since their independence regarding politics, geography, and the economy. The increase of an estimated 100,000 Russian military personnel at Russia-Ukraine borders and warnings from the US about the possible invasion on November 5, 2021, has sparked global discussion of what is next to come for these two countries and the possibility of an invasion; an idea that became a reality on February 21, 2021. Despite the Russian government calling it a ‘peace mission’, little information regarding the intent and severity of the invasion, based on their tense history, this action may have serious implications for each nation. This international conflict is encapsulated by these significantly destructive past events, including but not limited to the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea, among other territorial disputes, and recurring attacks on each other’s army personnel.
Russian and Ukraine Relations: A History
Since World War 1, Ukraine and Russia were united under the Soviet Union and governed by the communist party led by Joseph Stalin. Following the collapse of the USSR in 1991, Ukraine gained independence from Russia and was governed independently as a nation, rather than following the single-party soviet socialist republic framework previously adopted under the reign of the Soviet Union. This split caused great losses for the USSR, ranging from the allegiance of their citizens to Ukraine’s bountiful territory. Considering Ukraine’s farmland had previously served the purpose of producing wheat, which was consumed by the entirety of the USSR and traded throughout Europe, its sudden absence caused great economic losses for Russia once the two countries were divided. Tensions heightened in 2014 following the illegal annexation of Crimea by Russia, which further sparked the possibility of conflict between the West and Russia. While Russia claimed the waters surrounding the Ukrainian peninsula – known as Crimea – to be Russian territory, Ukraine garnered support from numerous countries, including the United States in recognizing the illegal annexation. Not only was this seizure of land the largest in Europe since World War 2, but it also led to military conflict with Donbas that same year, as Russian-backed separatists took control and spiralled conflict that cost an estimated 13,000 lives during the war that erupted following the annexation. In terms of settling this international conflict between Ukraine and Russia, according to a United Nations-mandated peacekeeping operation, “end[ing] the Russian Federation’s aggression and [restoring] Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity could be a decisive factor in bringing peace to Donbas…there is no alternative to a peaceful settlement…”. Considering neither of these objectives have been achieved, it is not surprising that territorial and sovereignty conflict is an ongoing issue for the two nations to this day.
Russian and Ukraine Relations: Today
On November 15, 2021, Jens Stoltenberg, the NATO Secretary-General, warned Russia that the increase of Russian troops found along Ukraine’s border called for a Western military alliance with Ukraine. At the time, a majority of the force was concentrated in Crimea, drawing into question whether such military action is in preparation for further territorial disputes, or if they seek to protect what they already have during their next course of action. Three months later, such questioning was further sparked after further troops crossed the Russian-Ukraine border and infiltrated into separatist-held parts of eastern Ukraine. Although it is unclear whether there are territorial motives behind this invasion, especially with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin acknowledging their independence, there is a likelihood of history repeating itself.
Speculation that this presence foreshadows a full-blown military attack on Ukraine by Russian forces has heightened considering this pattern of increased military presence before severe action has occurred in the past. However, such a sudden increase also lowers the amount of preparation time for Ukraine and Ukrainian allies should there be a Russian attack. As well as military support from the West, halting reliance on industries provided by Russia, such as oil and gas, is another action being considered in effort to prevent action in Ukraine. Nations in support of this act include the United Kingdom; current Prime Minister Boris Johnston drew to light that if the United Kingdom continues to ally itself with Ukraine, Russia may seek to restrict resources to the West in retaliation for their support towards Ukraine during this time of conflict. This would not only have a sizeable impact on both Russia’s economy and trade, but also across the world with the nations that rely on such resources being impacted greatly. This draws into question how far the West is willing to go to support Ukraine and prevent Russian conflict, even if it means enduring losses for themselves in the meantime. With a considerably unstable past between the two nations, it seems to support the predictions that such military action is acting on behalf of gaining more Ukrainian territory or promoting pro-Russian sentiments within the government and its citizens through destabilizing the nation enough to have to depend on them. As the East of Ukraine is currently inhibited by Pro-Moscow rebels against Ukraine’s independence following the conflict that erupted after Crimea’s annexation, conflict regarding allegiance has occurred in the past and it is highly possible to occur in an even larger region with the help of military intervention on Russia’s behalf.
While further conflict between Russia and Ukraine is not inevitable, numerous contributing factors toward conflict have been brought forward, possibly foreshadowing continuing issues between the two nations over territory and sovereignty. While attempts at peace have been implemented by the UN throughout Ukraine’s time of independence, the situation at hand may lead to dissolving all hopes for future relations should there be a military attack. Not only would such conflict be detrimental to both nations, the worldwide economy, and their citizens, but it would also set back the development of their independence from each other even further. Prevention of yet another tragedy for the independence of Ukraine and peaceful relations between Ukraine and Russia call for quick preparation and cohesiveness by allies to ensure that it does not escalate to something of considerable magnitude, which could affect millions worldwide.
Edited by Aakanksha Mathur
Mayah Esmail is a U2 student at McGill University pursuing a major in Economics and a minor in Psychology. She is originally from Vancouver, BC, and her interests vary from economic policies, feminism, and socio-cultural issues.