Bernardo Arévalo’s victory in Guatemala’s 2023 Presidential elections should have been undisputed. Winning 60.9% of votes in the runoff election on August 20th of this year, he defeated his opponent, former first lady Sandra Torres of Unidad National de la Esperanza (UNE), by a margin of 23.3%. But in an astonishing violation of electoral procedure, prosecutors from the Attorney General’s Office raided the offices of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal on September 12th, opening boxes that contained votes and photographing their contents. Outraged, Guatemalans took to the streets to protest this electoral interference, and on September 30th, Indigenous organizations proclaimed a national strike in defense of democracy. The illegal handling of votes and the Supreme Electoral Tribunal’s politically motivated suspension of Semilla–Arévalo’s party–support Arévalo’s claim that what we are witnessing is nothing short of a “coup d’état”.
The unprecedented scenes of September 12th prompted Arévalo to suspend his own participation in the transition of power until the “necessary institutional [and] political conditions are reestablished.” During the 20-hour raid of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal’s facilities, electoral officials attempted to physically obstruct the illegal removal of documents and pleaded with prosecutors to respect election results, but to no avail. A total of 125, 000 documents were illegally removed and countless more were handled, despite Guatemalan law permitting only personnel of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal and polling station staff to do so. With no digital backups, the handling of votes jeopardizes the integrity of the electoral process, even with Arévalo’s victory already being confirmed. Arévalo’s actions have added to the chaos, as it is unclear what should happen come January if he continues to boycott the election. However, suspending his own participation as the President-elect signals that his respect for the democratic process outweighs his desire to win the election. He will only assume power so long as the electoral procedure is respected and the elections are perceived as free and fair.
In the nationwide protests that followed, demonstrators occupied the Plaza de la Constitución in Guatemala City, staged a sit-in at the public ministry’s headquarters, and blocked roads throughout the country. The backbone of these protests have been Indigenous organizations such as 48 Cantones de Totonicapán, who are mobilizing online through platforms such as TikTok to demand the resignation of numerous high ranking officials and respect for the election results. Despite being a demographic majority, Indigenous peoples in Guatemala have been systematically disadvantaged through state policies that concentrate power and wealth in the hands of economic elites. During Guatemala’s 36-year civil war (1960-1996), government counter-insurgency campaigns massacred and terrorized Mayan communities in what is now recognized as genocide. These legacies have yielded one of the highest rates of inequality in Central America, but this reality is increasingly challenged by a population that is exhausted by a corrupt system that finances the opulent lifestyles of elites, whilst condemning the Indigenous majority to life in poverty. The presence of the International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG), which operated from 2007-2019, contributed to this awareness by exposing the large-scale corruption schemes that implicated hundreds of business owners and politicians. Established in Guatemala at the invitation of the Guatemalan government, the UN-backed investigative body was born from civil society advocacy, which demanded the Guatemalan government address how criminal networks threatened post-war democratic institutions. In 2019, then president Jimmy Morales failed to renew the CICIG’s mandate, ushering in a new era of democratic backsliding that fuels today’s civil unrest.
Though initially peaceful, pro-democracy protests turned violent when a group of approximately 200 masked men infiltrated the movement and destroyed public property. The identities of these individuals remain unknown, but it is widely believed that they were deployed by state actors, serving as a political tool to justify repression. Alleging damage to property is often a prelude to criminal charges, projecting malicious perceptions onto these protests. Online, disinformation campaigns seek to confuse local populations by distorting the movement’s message, which demands nonpartisan respect for the election results and a peaceful transition of power.
Leaders of the blockade affirm that they have facilitated the passage of emergency vehicles through demonstrations from the outset, but a Kaqchikel man who voted for Arévalo claims that the blockades are harming the very people they claim to represent. The disruption of supply chains across the country has limited access to raw materials, medicines, food, and work. There have also been job losses in the tourism industry, and the price of commodities has risen to rates that are unaffordable to many. “I don’t support the blockades in my country because [they] are hurting the people while the corrupt in the government just sit and watch this show,” says the same man. He endorses the peaceful marches and sit-ins in the nation’s capital, but affirms that “protesters need to follow the legal framework and […] not break the law. The protesters are angry, but this is not the way we need to act. We need to be smart and win with legal means.”
However, political elites have shown themselves willing to execute a legal coup d’état to prevent Arévalo from taking office on January 14th, 2024. Just moments after the results of the first round were certified last July, Guatemala’s Special Prosecutor’s Office against Impunity suspended Arévalo’s party, Semilla, claiming that it was registered using falsified signatures when founded in 2015. A provisional injunction was granted to allow the second round of voting to proceed, as suspending a party during an election is illegal, but the end of October marked the official end of the election period. On November 2nd, Semilla was again suspended.
In 2015, 20,000 demonstrators mobilized to oust then President Otto Péréz Molina, who accepted millions in bribes in an elaborate customs duties scheme called La Línea. Today, demonstrators are demanding the resignation of Guatemala’s Attorney General María Consuelo Porras, as well as top prosecutors Rafael Curruchiche, Cinthia Monterroso, and criminal judge Fredy Orellana. Pro-democracy protests have succeeded before, but Guatemala has suffered major backsliding in its anti-corruption drive since Consuelo Porras was appointed to the Attorney General’s Office in 2018 and the CICIG’s mandate was terminated in 2019. Corrupt officials have since been emboldened to act with impunity. There is power in popular mobilization, and many Guatemalans feel as though this is a watershed moment in their postwar democracy. But political elites will not relinquish their hold on power willingly or quietly.
Edited by Jamie Silverman
Clio is in her fourth year at McGill, majoring in Honours International Development and minoring in Hispanic Studies and Social Studies of Medicine. As a staff writer for Catalyst, she most enjoys writing about social movements, political violence, Indigenous rights, and feminism.