In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic and its effects began to be felt worldwide, and The Gambia has not been immune. Already a country in flux, it continues to face the added economic and societal consequences of the global pandemic while grappling with its already existing systemic problems. Furthermore, its new democracy remains weak and vulnerable. The Gambia must tackle these issues by creating a resilient, inclusive, and equitable post-pandemic economy and consolidate its democracy through a robust process of democratisation, while addressing the previous crimes of the former regime.
The Gambia is a small West African country of just over 2 million people. A former British Colony, it gained its independence in 1965. However, after a few promising decades of turbulent democracy, a bloodless coup toppled the government and established a junta led by Yahya Jammeh, who went on to be elected president in 1996 in an election widely seen as illegitimate due to government repression of the opposition.
Jammeh’s rule was autocratic and brutal in nature. Established in 2018, the Truth, Reconciliation, and Reparations Commission (TRRC) gathered evidence and testimonials of victims, releasing a final report determining that the regime routinely engaged in extrajudicial killings, torture, and disappearances of countless opposition figures and journalists. He was personally found to have raped several people.
Under Jammeh’s rule, The Gambia’s economy was export-oriented in nature and focused on exploiting its comparative advantages, a strategy based on deep consultation with major international financial institutions and Western donors. This so-called “Vision 2020” of the government was deeply neoliberal in nature and precluded any significant role for the state in guiding economic development.
Today, the country is not much different. It relies on the tourism sector for around 20% of its GDP and employment. This is complemented by the indirect employment that is generated from its economic spillovers which makes up a significant source of income for many. The sector has significant structural flaws, like a reliance on foreign companies, giving the government little control over a significant portion of its economy. Even more basically, tourism relies on foreign visitors to generate income, something that becomes impossible in the face of travel bans during pandemics, seen not just during the COVID-19 pandemic but during the outbreak of Ebola in 2015.
As for The Gambia’s democracy, the situation has improved over the past years, yet serious concerns remain. In 2016, opposition figure Adama Barrow won the presidential election and was inaugurated after a military intervention by ECOWAS to oust Jammeh, who refused to concede. He promised the people that he would only be a transitional leader, but reneged on this promise, going on to win the most-recent presidential election in 2021. It was an overwhelming victory for Barrow, who promised to tackle corruption and develop the country; he broke the mold of the previous election by gaining support from a coalition of a wide range of ethnic groups. However, his victory was made possible in part due to support from groups previously loyal to Jammeh. The TRRC has determined that some key allies of Barrow should be prosecuted for their crimes under Jammeh’s regime, putting him in a difficult position. The commission has also recommended that a new constitution be implemented, but this document has yet to be ratified, in part due to politicians loyal to Barrow today. Without a new constitution, government power remains dangerously unrestricted, with many Jammeh-era decrees used to violate Gambians’ rights remaining in force.
The country’s lack of social policy for the labour market makes Gambians vulnerable to the kinds of economic shocks the country has witnessed in recent years, according to Nyang Nije, an economist based in the Gambia. Even more broadly, The Gambia’s social welfare policies are seriously underdeveloped: It has no national health insurance program, social assistance is short-term and emergency-oriented, and bureaucratic capacity is weak due to inadequate staffing and funding. Nije also argues that the mass majority of young people, who make up a large proportion of the country, are not prepared for the future.
The pandemic has also revealed the deep gender inequalities that were previously hidden while worsening the existing gaps, according to Jama Jack, a social activist and feminist in The Gambia. She believes the government has been careless in this situation: “Obviously, if they did not care during normal times, they’re not going to care during a pandemic.” Maimuna Jobe is one of the many women who was disproportionately affected. When the pandemic began impacting the country, she lost her job as a receptionist along with her siblings who also worked in the tourism industry. She says she fears for her future: “How is it going to be? Am I going to be standing in the streets, begging? Or am I going to enter prostitution? What am I going to do to earn a living?” Men dominate in the formal sector of employment while women are increasingly entering the sex trade, with the country being labeled by some as a “sex tourist destination.”
Remittances have always been a key part of the economy, and during the pandemic, they helped save the country from a more serious and widespread recession. The Gambia’s balance of payments was positive in 2020, and GDP growth fell to 0%, an outstanding figure compared to the -10% growth projected for the region. Alongside an unusually strong agricultural season, the country managed some economic stability. However, this dependence on the diaspora in the absence of government intervention can increase inequality since remittances are distributed based on family connections. Overall, remittances actually fell during the pandemic due to the collapse of the informal networks used to distribute them, demonstrating the dangers of relying on them for macroeconomic stability.
Clearly, then, the economic and democratic problems that The Gambia faces in this nearly post-pandemic environment are significant. What are some possible solutions?
The Gambia must develop its social safety net if it wants to improve the lives of its population and increase economic stability. This will have the added effect of reducing inequality by transferring wealth to the worse-off. Furthermore, it will help to keep vulnerable people, especially women, off the streets and out of occupations like prostitution. To fund this, the government must make efforts to increase its taxing capacity by absorbing the informal economy into the larger superstructure. A more novel approach, suggested by Sanjay Reddy, could be the implementation of a “Gambia Development Bond,” a financial instrument that the diaspora could invest in, helping to formalise the remittance system and reduce the inequalities that arise from the current framework.
The Gambia must engage in a structural transformation of their economy to reduce their dependence on the tourism sector. This could take a dual approach through a service- and industry-based transformation. The Gambia should take advantage of their young population by investing in education to create a skilled workforce which can “adopt and adapt to new technologies.” Furthermore, it should invest in agro-business to improve productivity and output in agriculture, providing direct benefit to the often-overlooked rural regions of the country.
Adama Barrow has established a weak, unconsolidated democracy. Civil society actors and the general public must make it clear that a new constitution must be ratified and the TRRC’s recommendations be implemented. The health of The Gambia’s democracy will suffer if not.
Gambians deserve a better economy, democracy, and general society than they have now. It must shake off its dependencies and create an equitable economy, while establishing a genuine democracy that ensures its future longevity.
Edited by Leslie Carmelotes
William Gilbert is in his fourth year at McGill University, pursuing a B.A. Joint Honors in Political Science and International Development. He is a staff writer for Catalyst. He is particularly interested in structural transformation for economic development in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Extremely informative and fascinating information on a country that we seldom here from!
We’ll done!