In 2023, an estimated 2.3 billion people around the world were moderately or severely food insecure, meaning they lacked regular access to safe, nutritious, and sufficient food. The number of people facing catastrophic hunger – the most critical level of food insecurity – increased more than two-fold in 2024, reaching 1.9 million people. These alarming figures cast significant doubt on the feasibility of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal #2, which aims to end hunger and achieve global food security by 2030. Despite record highs in agricultural productivity and a relative abundance of foodstuff, the World Food Programme (WFP) warns that we are currently facing an escalating global food crisis. So, what’s fuelling this emergency?
Conflict remains a principal driver of food insecurity on national, regional, and global scales. The ongoing invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces has caused widespread food insecurity in the region, as more than 7 million people within Ukraine’s borders are estimated to have faced food insecurity in 2023. This conflict also continues to disrupt supply chains and inflate food prices around the world. Prewar agricultural production accounted for 41% of overall Ukrainian exports, rendering it a leading global exporter of agricultural commodities that many countries rely on. Low and middle-income countries in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East particularly depend on food imports from the Black Sea to meet domestic food demands. Together, Russia and Ukraine made up one-third of the global wheat trade, 17% of the global corn trade, and almost 75% of the global sunflower oil trade. Given the vital nature of Ukraine’s agriculture sector, Russian efforts continue to deliberately target key food production systems and infrastructure. The destruction of machinery, farmland, crops, livestock, ports, and storage facilities holding 9.4 million tonnes of agricultural products in Ukraine has hurt its national economy, disrupted vital supply chains, and shocked the global food supply.
The 2022 UN-brokered Black Sea Grain Initiative – an effort to enable the safe passage of Ukrainian food and fertilizer exports through three key ports in the Black Sea – collapsed just one year later due to Russia’s withdrawal. As a result, production, transportation, and storage costs have surged, causing inflationary effects on global food prices. The burden of these increases is often passed on to consumers, as demonstrated by the cost of food stock in grocery stores worldwide. The FAO Food Price Index hit an all-time high immediately after Russia’s invasion, with pricing remaining higher than prewar levels.
As the price of food rises, people shift consumption away from more nutritious foodstuffs, which are typically more expensive, towards cheaper, less nutritious food. If — as defined by the FAO — food security exists when “all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”, it is clear that these conflict-related ramifications have compromised core dimensions of food security. It is projected that almost 600 million people will be chronically undernourished globally by 2030, some 23 million more people than if the war in Ukraine had never occurred.
In fact, 70% of the world’s hungry people reside in areas affected by war and violence, according to the WFP. For instance, Víctor Aguayo, Director of Child Nutrition at the United Nations International Children’s Emergency Fund (UNICEF), recently described the conditions in Gaza as “one of the most severe food and nutrition crises in history” due to the “complete collapse” of food, health, and humanitarian systems. Warfare has destroyed 70% of crops in the region and has severely restricted both commercial and humanitarian supply chains. The WFP projects that in the coming months, 91% of the population in the Gaza Strip will face acute food insecurity, with more than 345,000 individuals facing catastrophic levels of hunger. Consequently, the risk of famine will persist throughout Gaza if fighting and related destruction and disruptions continue.
Sudan has also been designated a “hunger hotspot” by the WFP and the FAO, with the civil conflict between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces driving mass internal displacement and deteriorating food systems and security. Over 50% of the total population is currently facing acute hunger. UNICEF predicts that 730,000 children will suffer severe acute malnutrition in Sudan by the end of this year. Malnutrition, especially in children, can cause physical and cognitive stunting, severe health complications, and, in extreme cases, death. The WFP warns that 13 other areas of the country are at risk of famine after one was declared in the Zamzam camp in Sudan’s North Darfur Region in August 2024. These numbers illustrate the dire state of food security in conflict zones.
Climate change is another critical and escalating driver of food insecurity, intensifying the frequency and severity of adverse weather patterns that will continue to impact agricultural production and supply chains. While warmer temperatures may extend growing seasons for certain crops in select regions, the risks posed by climate-related events far outweigh these benefits. October 2024 marked the 15th consecutive month of record-breaking global temperatures, according to the most recent Agricultural Market Information System Market Monitor report. Prolonged droughts, exacerbated by rising temperatures, have vital ramifications, including an increased reliance on irrigation systems which strains on critical water resources.
In early 2024, a severe dry spell devastated agricultural production across southern Africa. This was triggered by a combination of the naturally occurring El Niño phenomenon and higher-than-average global temperatures caused by elevated levels of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs). The Climate Hazards Center at UC Santa Barbara reported that Zambia, Zimbabwe, Angola, Botswana, Namibia, South Africa, and Lesotho received half or less of their typical rainfall between January and March 2024. These conditions resulted in widespread crop failures and livestock death, threatening food security for the approximately 68 million people living in this region. This has significantly worsened pre-existing high levels of food insecurity and malnutrition among the southern African population.
It is crucial to recognize that climate change and food security are not distant concerns; their devastating impacts are increasingly evident in countries like Canada, where extreme weather events impact agricultural production and rising food insecurity affects quality of life. According to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, natural disasters such as wildfires, floods, and variable temperatures are intensified by climate change and risk having increasingly devastating impacts on the Canadian agricultural sector. These challenges compound the supply chain disruptions and price increases resulting from geopolitical events to seriously threaten food security in Canada. Recent data from the Canadian Income Survey shows that 8.7 million people living in Canada’s ten provinces experienced food insecurity in 2023. This figure does not account for the high levels of food insecurity in Canada’s territories, where natural climatic conditions, remote locations, and high food prices exacerbate existing food-related challenges.
The global food crisis is a stark reminder that, despite being enshrined in the UN Declaration of Human Rights, the right to food remains a universal concern. Conflict and climate change, along with their inflationary effects, are driving food insecurity to unprecedented levels, with devastating impacts that transcend borders and relative income levels. As the UN’s 2030 deadline for eradicating hunger looms, addressing this crisis requires urgent, coordinated global action to stabilize conflict zones, mitigate the effects of climate change, and strengthen food systems and supply chains.
Edited by Isaac Yong
This is an article written by a Staff Writer. Catalyst is a student-led platform that fosters engagement with global issues from a learning perspective. The opinions expressed above do not necessarily reflect the views of the publication.
Béatrice is a final-year McGill student majoring in International Development Studies, with minors in Political Science and Hispanic Studies. She is passionate about international relations and socio-economic development. As a staff writer for Catalyst, she looks forward to examining issues relating to human rights, food security, and youth and women’s empowerment.