As the devastating war in Gaza approaches its fourth month, the impacts of the conflict, thus far predominantly confined to the Gaza Strip and the Israeli-Lebanese border, threaten to spill over into the surrounding region, widening the conflict to a regional scale. Since the new year, the Western coalition’s airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen have aggravated Iran, causing it to pursue a more confrontational and offensive foreign policy. Such aggression has manifested in drone and airstrikes against the sovereign territories of Pakistan, Syria and Iraq. Furthermore, on January 28th, 2024, a Iranian-backed militia’s drone strike killed three American soldiers in Jordan, marking the first time Americans were directly targeted and killed since the start of the war. Immediately following this, President Biden vowed a prompt response. The ever-growing tense exchanges between Israel and the United States versus Iran have set a worrying precedent for those in the region and the world, with increasing fears of such hostilities igniting the entire region.
On January 17th, 2024, Iran engaged in airstrikes against Pakistan. Pakistan soon returned strikes, resulting in a tit-for-tat exchange in which both countries claimed to be neutralizing cross-border terrorist groups. Iran has claimed that it was targeting an Iranian-designated terrorist group, Jaish al Adl, a Balochi separatist militia aiming to unite the Balochistan provinces of Pakistan and Iran in an independent state. On the same day, Iran also engaged in drone strikes against what they deemed terrorist groups in Syria and Kurdish-controlled Iraq. Pakistan responded initially by recalling their ambassador and condemning Iran for violating Pakistani sovereignty, choosing to avoid readily available diplomatic processes to address their concerns. Furthermore, Pakistan retaliated Iran’s airstrikes with counter-airstrikes two days later, claiming to be targeting terrorist groups in Iran. Surprisingly, Pakistan and Iran restored full diplomatic relations the very next day, raising suspicions of the true motives behind these decisions. Many analysts see Iran’s attacks as an attempt to portray an illusion of dominance and influence in the region, using somewhat arbitrary and low-scale drone strikes against neighbouring countries as a show of strength. However, Iran’s growing military presence does set a worrying precedent in the region, and heeds the risk of the conflict igniting, especially if any attacks are misperceived.
One of Iran’s central foreign policy initiatives is supporting the Axis of Resistance, through which they support Shi’a paramilitary groups around the Middle East to achieve their anti-imperialist and pro-revolutionary foreign policy goals. More specifically, goals include anti-American and anti-Israeli imperialism, as well as seeking to increase individual geopolitical outreach in the region through promoting Islamic revolution. The Axis of Resistance is a coalition of militia actors that also contain central objectives of anti-Western imperialism and region-wide Islamic revolution in the hotly contested Middle Eastern region. They operate specifically within the Shia crescent, a land mass in the Levant region that stretches from Iraq to Lebanon, predominantly boasting a Shi’a Muslim population. Iran continues to play a central role in funding and supporting these militia groups, particularly in the Levant and Yemen in hopes of weakening American entrenchment in the region. Their support also serves to take advantage of the instability of the countries within which these groups operate. The Axis of Resistance also includes Hezbollah, a paramilitary group that holds a political party in Lebanon. Since the start of the October 7th war, Hezbollah has retaliated against the Israeli bombardment of civilians in Gaza by firing rockets into Israel, just days after the start of the war. This has raised critical concerns among Lebanese locals of a potential Israeli invasion into Lebanon, on the provocation of Hezbollah. Such an attack would expand the war in Gaza beyond its current borders, at the very least into a transnational conflict.
It is worth noting that Iran’s decisions did not occur in a vacuum, but were arguably propagated by the West’s bypassing of international law. The West’s decision to maintain deterrence against Houthi rebels vis-a-vis airstrikes in Yemen, while simultaneously turning a blind eye to the numerous potential international law violations committed by Israel in the Gaza Strip, has arguably diminished American and British credibility in the region. It can further be contended that the United States’ decision to intervene in Yemen has spurred Iran into pursuing an audacious foreign policy, markedly in the form of launching direct drone attacks beyond sovereign borders. Furthermore, the Western airstrikes have done nothing to deter the Houthis from disrupting maritime trade in the Red Sea. Rather, their interventions have heightened tensions in the region to an all-time high. Moreover, the reluctance of Western powers, specifically the United States and United Kingdom, to condemn Israel for its ongoing human right abuses and aid blockade, in contrast with their prompt aggression towards Yemen over issues of trade indicate a double standard being applied by the West, whereupon only allies seem to be exempt from international law. The United States’ inability to apply international law effectively to all countries, including themselves and their allies, has allowed other countries and non-state actors, including Iran and the Houthis, to recognise and take advantage of the resulting instability and act to meet their own objectives.
On January 28th, 2024, a drone strike left three U.S. soldiers dead and over forty injured in a military base in Amman, Jordan, marking the first American soldiers to be directly killed in the region since the start of the war. President Joe Biden claimed that the attacks were backed by Iran, despite Iran denying such accusations. Biden has already promised a response against the Islamic Resistance of Iraq, the Iranian-backed group that took responsibility for the attacks, while simultaneously cautioning that he does not intend for the war in Gaza to widen regionally. However, critics argue that until an effective ceasefire and halting of civilian hostilities by Israel in the Gaza Strip are properly achieved, the risk of the war widening into a regional conflict remains high. Both regional instability and poor enforcement of international law, continue to feed into the activities and incentives of regional paramilitary groups. The divergence in foreign policy aims between the Western powers and these groups, who do not seem deterred by Western airstrikes, are likely to exacerbate the conflict. Current negotiations between Israel and Hamas indicate a potential ceasefire that would allow for the release of Israeli civilian hostages. If such a ceasefire is successful, it would help in alleviating some of the rising tensions in the region, most notably between Iran, Israel, and the United States. Furthermore, a ceasefire agreement would appease the Houthis’ demands much more than airstrikes have, causing a decline in maritime trade disruptions. It is imperative that the Western powers seek a diplomatic solution that will be in tune with the situation on the ground, avoid aggravating existing tensions, and seek to re-establish a functioning status quo with Iran.
Through pursuing military intervention alone, the U.S. risks igniting a full-scale war rather than achieving an effective deterrence policy. Similarly to the Obama administration’s decision to pursue the Iran nuclear deal of 2015, a deal that convinced Iran to delay their nuclear program, the Biden administration should seek a solution that not only holds Israel accountable to international law but also ensures Iran cannot build off the instability brought forth by conflict. This is especially relevant as the possibility of a nuclear-armed Iran grows more likely every day. Yet, until a ceasefire is agreed to, Iran’s growing geopolitical outreach can only be attributed to the inability of Western states to uphold international law fairly, which continues to spur and enable the activities of Iran and the Axis of Resistance in the region.
Edited by Madeline Chisholm
Waleed is a fourth-year Political Science and History student. Being a Pakistani who was born and raised in Saudi Arabia, his third-culture upbringing lends itself to where his areas of interest lie: international relations and politics in the Middle East and South Asia, with a specific interest in imperialism in the Global South.