On July 26, the Presidential Guard detained President Mohamed Bazoum inside his Palace in Niger’s capital, Niamey. This military takeover can be added to the extensive list of military takeovers in neighbouring countries since 2019. These include Mali in August 2020 and May 2021, Guinea in September 2021, Burkina Faso in January 2022 and September 2022, Chad in April 2021, Sudan in April 2019 and October 2021. As a result, the Sahel region is extremely unstable despite the many international and local efforts from African countries to mitigate the crisis and tensions. The outcome of recent events in Niger will be critical and will likely generate more instability as the country was one of the last remaining democracies in the region.
Historically, Niger is a key Western ally in the fight for counter-terrorism operations in Africa’s Sahel region. As is depicted on the map in the Dessous des Cartes, Niger is located in West Africa and borders the Sahara desert and the Sahel region. Niger is a landlocked country neighboured by Chad in the East, Nigeria and Benin in the South, Algeria and Libya in the North, and Mali and Burkina Faso in the West. Both the United States and France have several military bases positioned in the country to help tackle extremists. Previously a French colony, parts of current Niger were first occupied in the late XIXth century around the time of the Berlin Conference in 1884-1885. Later, Niger became an official French colony in 1922. Niger gained independence in 1960 and fluctuated between political regimes, both authoritarian and democratic, before stabilizing regime change and returning to civilian rule in 2011. Over time, Niger has kept strong ties with France and has become a key ally of the European Union to mitigate irregular migration from sub-Saharan Africa. In 2021, newly democratically elected Mohamed Bazoum won with 55.7% of the vote against former president Mahamane Ousmane. Bazoum’s victory was the first democratic transition of power since independence. There were hopes that Niger would be an example for other African countries.
Experts fear that a new wave of political instability caused by recent events may create a domino effect for other countries in the region. According to the 2023 Global Terrorism Index Report, the Sahel region accounts for 43 percent of terrorism deaths in 2022, a number that has drastically increased over the years. A recent publication by the International Center for Counter-Terrorism predicts, using similar past cases, that this military takeover could lead to “an increase in terrorist attacks” and potentially “leave a security vacuum for violent extremist groups to exploit in rural and peripherical areas.”
The tensions between different political actors in Niger will likely translate into geopolitical rivalry within Europe. Indeed, the French government supported the current president to maintain cooperation between the two countries. Yet, with the military uprising the pro-French sentiment is weakening. Meanwhile, Russia is gaining support in the country. However, both demonstrations for and against the military takeover took place. As a result, the US suspended security cooperation and threatened to stop sending budgetary aid. France suspended development budget aid, as did the European Union, on July 29 and started to evacuate its citizens in Niger on August 1st.
The question as to whether international actors who have traditionally cooperated with Niger can or should still cooperate, and if not, what implications could this have, still remains as the event unfolds. Peer de Jong, former military chief of staff of French President Jacques Chirac, responded on social media by raising important questions on the country’s future and the impossible deadlock of the situation: to intervene or not to. Notably, should outside forces intervene at all to help alleviate the situation? In any case, he underlines the need for different relations, beginning with less foreign presence in the region.
More importantly, this new military uprising raises questions about the future of democratic states in Africa. An article in Le Monde Diplomatique mentions a common trend in African politics that explains governments’ instability. Due to globalization and the power of multinational corporations, many African governments have been trapped or constrained by international trade. Indeed, many countries rely on multinational corporations’ exports of petrol, gold and diamond, agricultural products and other natural resources. The private sector’s interest has stepped over the interest of the public sector, and subsequently, the role of the government has shifted away from its original role. As a result, governments have acted more like “boards of directors” rather than as “presidents” for the people, which has affected the allocation of government spending. The article mentions both Gabon and Angola as examples to illustrate this point. More broadly, this argument relates to the lasting effect of colonial rule and the “resource curse” phenomenon. In the case of Niger, the tension rises from grievances. The country is one of the poorest in the world. In an interview for France24, Nicolas Normand, a former French ambassador in Mali, DRC and Senegal, says that the country blames its economic partners, France, the European Union and the United States, for this dire development and extreme poverty.
Another factor which explains the instability of the region is related to demographics. Despite being rich in natural resources, including gold and uranium, Niger remains one of the poorest countries in the world. Indeed, in 2021, Niger scored 0.400 on its Human Development Index (HDI), ranking 189 out of 191 countries. Moreover, although Niger receives international aid, it is plagued by debt that it cannot fully repay, with the World Bank classifying the country at a “moderate” risk of debt distress in 2021. In addition, Niger faces significant pressure in terms of social spending, particularly in the health and education sector, as its population is rising more than 3 percent per year. The instability caused by recent events will likely aggravate this situation.
While the conflict unfolds, experts discuss potential outcomes, which range from possible peace talks or military intervention by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). An outcome that could have broader repercussions as both Mali and Burkina Faso have threatened to get involved in the conflict if there is a military intervention.
Authors note: This piece was written before the recent military takeover in Gabon on August 30, 2023.
Edited by Sabrina Nelson
Victoire Thierry is entering her third year at McGill university studying International Development and Political Science. She is a first-time writer and her interest include sustainability, migration and international relations.