It has been nearly three years since the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and the subsequent takeover by the Taliban government, leaving enormous consequences for regional and global security. On March 18th of this year, Pakistan engaged in a series of airstrikes on Afghan soil, near the shared border between the two countries. The Pakistani government claims that it was neutralizing terrorist groups that had been operating in Pakistan through the Afghan border. The airstrikes occurred days after seven Pakistani soldiers were killed by an extremist militant group that Pakistan alleges was provided sanctuary and support from the Taliban government in Afghanistan. The Taliban government, in response, has denied such claims, and retaliated to the airstrikes by targeting Pakistani troops. The skirmishes between these two neighbouring countries indicate a concerning future for international security and also pose a risk to vulnerable civilians who are perpetually caught in the crossfire. Furthermore, both countries are suffering serious economic crises, whereupon prospects of any prolonged war would be a death blow to their already fractured economic security.
In the past, the Pakistani government has been widely alleged to have funded the Taliban before their takeover, an allegation the nation vehemently denies till today. The Taliban was formed by former mujahideen fighters who were jointly funded and trained by the United States, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia, as well as other states, to fight against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in 1979. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Afghanistan had fallen into a civil war between the different Islamist factions over governmental control, which ultimately resulted in a victory for the Taliban. Pakistan allegedly provided political support towards the Taliban government in the late 1990s, and allegedly even provided military and economic support by the early 2000s, in hopes of propping a pro-Pakistan government in Afghanistan. Following the 9/11 attacks, the United States’ intervention and war against terrorism in Afghanistan was jointly supported by Pakistan, whereupon the U.S. was unsuccessful in curbing the rise of the Taliban regime.
The Taliban government’s takeover in 2021 has posed a global security risk to neighbouring countries as well as European countries. Just days after the Pakistan-Taliban skirmishes, on the 22nd of March this year, over 140 people were massacred in a concert hall in Moscow, Russia. The terrorist group, ISKP (Islamic State of Khorasan Province), claimed responsibility for these attacks. The ISKP is a surviving militant faction of the notorious Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) that operates from grounds held in Afghanistan. They hold this ground even following the annihilation of ISIS from Iraq and Syria by Russia and the U.S. in December of 2017. Despite the Taliban being opposed to ISIS, the lack of an effective air force and general security measures have left vast pockets in Afghanistan under the control of other militant, extremist groups, including the Islamic State fighters. Furthermore, the diplomatic and economic isolation of the Taliban government on the international stage has allowed these uncontrolled terrorist factions to fester and now, effectively spill over into other countries. Similar attacks by Islamic State militants have occurred in Pakistan several times in the last year, including a suicide attack at a political rally that killed 54 people and left 200 wounded in July of 2023.
The increased cross-border terrorist attacks against Pakistani civilians and army personnel have created a tough security situation for the Pakistani government, especially in the wake of the the Biden administration’s withdrawal from Afghanistan. The withdrawal has resulted in decreased NATO airstrikes against rogue militant groups, exacerbating the dire security concerns. There are also worries that the Taliban government supports and sponsors the Tehreek-E-Taliban-Pakistan, an extremist fringe group of the Taliban that operates predominantly in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province (KPK), which is situated in Pakistan, bordering Afghanistan. The KPK and Balochistan provinces have borne the brunt of these attacks, especially due to cross-border terrorist activity, but other parts of Pakistan have been targeted as well. Despite the Afghan Taliban government claiming independence from the actions of the Pakistani Taliban, they have allowed them sanctuary in key border regions of Afghanistan. Furhter, as a result of international diplomatic and economic isolation of the Taliban government in Afghanistan itself, there is little to no leverage for Pakistan to utilize.
In October of 2023, Pakistan issued an alarming directive instructing all Afghani refugees without citizenship in the country to leave within a month’s amnesty period, or face the threat of forced deportation. This indiscriminate policy caused tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan, as Pakistan justified the deportations with the increased terrorist attacks. Pakistan alleged to have found these attacks correlated to the influx of Afghan refugees. However, six months after this directive, terrorist attacks have not been curbed, which raises the issue of Pakistan’s need to engage in more effective and humane counter-terrorism policies. The Afghan Taliban government has advised the Pakistani government to renew talks with the Pakistani Taliban and come to a ceasefire agreement, as was done in 2022 under Imran Khan’s government, or to help ease tensions. However, the current Pakistani government has ruled out any intention to negotiate with the Pakistan Taliban, leaving them with the option of confronting the Pakistani Taliban in military operations. The Afghan Taliban government has remained resolute that the operations of the Pakistan Taliban remain a matter solely domestic to Pakistan. On the other hand, Pakistan demands the intervention of the Taliban government in Afghanistan to stop sourcing the Pakistani Taliban.
As for the future, Pakistan faces tough challenges in combating terrorism, this time without the aid of U.S.-backed drone strikes and backup, along with an increasingly resistant Taliban government. Furthermore, without any foreign backing or intermediary, neither the Pakistani nor the Afghan economy is in shape to sustain an escalated conflict. The prospects of any country coming to Pakistan’s rescue this time around are slim, leaving Pakistan with the sole option of engaging diplomatically and peacefully with the Taliban. This has been successful for both countries in the past, as indicated by the Taliban’s mediation to create a ceasefire between Pakistan and the Pakistani Taliban in 2022. In return, Pakistan can potentially use diplomacy to pressure the Taliban government to soften its radical policies and increase crackdowns on other terrorist groups, such as the ISKP and the Pakistani Taliban. Pakistan’s own double game in the past has resulted in consequences for them in the present, and serves as a tough reminder to engage in reasonable and regionally sensitive foreign policy initiatives. These initiatives must dually prioritize the interests of the Pakistani people and the region’s security needs before geopolitical needs.
Edited by Lucy de Cartier
Waleed is a fourth-year Political Science and History student. Being a Pakistani who was born and raised in Saudi Arabia, his third-culture upbringing lends itself to where his areas of interest lie: international relations and politics in the Middle East and South Asia, with a specific interest in imperialism in the Global South.