In 2016, Saudi Arabia and Iran suspended diplomatic relations, marking the latest chapter in a long history of contention and conflict between the two regional powers in the Middle East. However, in a surprising turn of events, China, a rising power vying with the United States for global influence, has brokered a political detente between Saudi Arabia and Iran. This development has far-reaching implications for the global order and various ongoing conflicts, particularly the War in Yemen and the War in Ukraine.
While the United States has been the dominant force in the international system whose influence has been particularly strong in the Middle East, in recent years the United States has struggled to maintain its hegemony. The inability of the United States to mediate between Saudi Arabia and Iran, or any other dispute for that matter, highlights its position as a falling superpower. This has in turn led to a destabilizing proxy war in Yemen and increased tensions throughout the region. By contrast, China’s detente between Saudi Arabia and Iran demonstrates its growing influence in the Middle East and its ability to play a significant role in resolving regional conflicts.
One of the key factors that have contributed to China’s success is its perceived impartiality. Unlike the United States, which has taken a clear side in the conflict by supporting Saudi Arabia, China has maintained a more neutral stance, allowing it to play a more constructive role in resolving the conflict. By not being seen as taking sides, China has been able to build trust with both Saudi Arabia and Iran, working towards a solution that is acceptable to both parties.
Another factor that has contributed to China’s success is its growing economic and diplomatic influence. In recent years, China has been investing heavily in the Middle East, building both infrastructural and economic ties. This has given China a substantial presence in the region and has allowed it to build relationships with key players, particularly Saudi Arabia and Iran. In addition, China’s Belt and Road Initiative has given it a significant presence in countries throughout the world. As a result, China has been able to wield significant leverage in its diplomatic efforts, allowing it to play a more prominent role in global affairs.
China’s approach to diplomacy can also be pointed to as a factor in its success. China has a long tradition of “win-win” diplomacy, which emphasizes the importance of cooperation and mutual benefit in international relations. This approach stands in contrast to the more confrontational approach taken by the United States, which has often emphasized the use of force and coercion in pursuing its foreign policy objectives. China’s approach has helped it build trust with other nations and has allowed it to work towards solutions that are acceptable to all parties.
Despite all this, it is important to note that a detente between Saudi Arabia and Iran does not mean that all conflict between the two nations has been completely resolved. Saudi Arabia and Iran still have significant differences and disagreements on a range of issues, including their respective roles in the Middle East and their approaches to religion and governance. Moreover, other regional and global powers, including the United States, Russia, and Israel, have vested interests in the outcome of this conflict and may seek to undermine the detente. It is therefore important to be cautious in interpreting the implications of this development.
Nonetheless, the development of peace between Saudi Arabia and Iran is especially significant because it represents a shift away from the unipolar world order that has characterized international relations since the end of the Cold War. For the past three decades, the United States has been the world’s sole superpower, but as its hegemony has fallen in recent years, various nations including China, have risen to prominence. The success of China in brokering a detente between Saudi Arabia and Iran suggests that we may be moving towards a more multipolar world order in which power is distributed more evenly among nations.
This shift in the world order has tremendous implications for global governance and diplomacy. In a unipolar world order, the United States has been able to exercise its influence over other nations and shape the international system to its liking. In a multipolar world order, however, power is more spread out, and nations must work together to address global challenges and pursue their interests. This requires greater diplomacy and cooperation among nations, which can be both challenging and rewarding.
In addition to the implications the Saudi-Iranian detente has for international polarity, we are also presented with potential resolutions to other global conflicts. One such conflict is the War in Yemen, which has been ongoing since 2015. The conflict has been viewed as a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran, with both nations supporting different sides. It is now possible that they withdraw their support from their respective sides in the conflict. Already, Saudi Arabia has begun talks with Yemen’s Houthis for a potential ceasefire and end to the conflict. This development could bring much-needed relief to the people of Yemen, who have been suffering from the devastating effects of the war, including Saudi Arabia’s bombing campaigns, for years.
The detente between Saudi Arabia and Iran could also have implications for the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War. As the first major conflict in Europe since the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia, the war has led to tens of thousands of casualties and has strained relations between Russia and the West, which has united behind Ukraine. Saudi Arabia and Iran, additionally, have both expressed support for opposing sides in the conflict, with Saudi Arabia supporting Ukraine and Iran supporting Russia.
China has also presented a peace proposal for the Russo-Ukrainian War which, though far from perfect, has attracted the attention of both Russia and Ukraine. China has been viewed as an adequately impartial representative by various nations, including France and other EU nations, who see an opportunity to end the conflict before it escalates even further. However, it is still important to note that the future remains uncertain. While China may have succeeded with Saudi Arabia and Iran, other attempts may prove less fruitful.
Edited by Anyssa Boyer
Alexander Morris-Schwarz is a third-year student at McGill University where he is majoring in Political Science with a minor in Communication Studies. Alexander is currently a staff writer for Catalyst and he is interested in international relations and imperialism.