On October 4th, 2023, the Pakistani government issued an alarming directive asking nearly two million unregistered Afghani refugees to either leave voluntarily by November 1st or face forced deportation by the Pakistani authorities. Since the advent of the Soviet-Afghan war of 1979, the political and security instability in war-torn Afghanistan has resulted in large waves of refugees settling in Pakistan. The Soviet-Afghan war occurred as a result of increased armed resistance by the Mujahideen, a US and Pakistan-trained and funded extremist-Islamist group that served a common purpose with American interest; overthrowing the Soviet-installed communist government in Afghanistan. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, the Taliban emerged from the remnants of the Mujahideen, resulting in continued insurgency and displacement of Afghani refugees into Pakistan. Pakistan played a huge role alongside the United States in suppressing Taliban insurgencies both in Pakistan and Afghanistan after President George Bush launched the war on terrorism in 2001.
The 2021 Taliban takeover of Afghanistan only increased the flow of refugees exponentially, with over 600,000 Afghani refugees migrating to Pakistan following the takeover, largely due to fear of the Taliban regime. Pakistan’s current economic crisis has resulted in drastic inflation of gas and food prices alongside a shortage in foreign exchange reserves. This has destabilized the rupee and fueled anti-refugee sentiments because of populist beliefs that refugees put unbearable pressure on the economy. The floods of 2022 have only exacerbated economic grievances, which partially contributed to growing anti-immigrant sentiment, as politicians and government officials have scapegoated Afghani refugees as not only a burden on the economy but also a security concern.
The Pakistani government has used national security as the main justification for the expulsion of Afghani refugees, with unproven claims blaming fourteen of the twenty-four suicide bombs in Pakistan this year on illegal Afghani refugees. Furthermore, recent spikes in activity of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan movement, better known as the Pakistani Taliban have also fueled anti-refugee rhetoric, as the Taliban regime now looms across the border. In 2007, the Tehreek-e-Taliban movement founded itself to parallel the Afghan Taliban, sharing a similar ideology focused on establishing a radical Islamic state and continuing to use suicide bomb attacks to further their interests
The increased terrorist attacks and activities this year by the Pakistani Taliban have resulted in extreme distrust and prejudice against Afghani refugees. Such prejudices have been reinforced through false associations of Afghani refugees to the Taliban government. It is worth mentioning that despite having historically operated from Eastern Afghanistan, the Tehreek-e-Taliban movement was created in Pakistan by radical Islamic pro-Taliban pro-Pashtun nationalist groups, which raises questions on the validity of the Pakistan government’s claim in associating Afghani refugees with the terrorist activities of the Pakistani Taliban. The Pashtuns are an ethnic group, with populations primarily located between northwest Pakistan and East Afghanistan.
The Pakistani Taliban has been operating primarily in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan, which borders Afghanistan, and shares a strong cultural and ethnolinguistic heritage with Afghanistan Pashtuns, which has also made the province a popular refugee settlement area. The Pakistani Taliban aligns with the Afghanistan Taliban ideologically. However, it operates as an independent entity within Pakistan. The Taliban regime in Afghanistan even detained 200 Pakistani Taliban soldiers after banning cross-border violence.
Over the past decade, the Pakistani Taliban have gained infamy due to their heinous terrorist attacks targeting civilians, notably exemplified by the 2014 attack on the Army Public School in Peshawar. This tragic incident resulted in the merciless killing of 150 innocent individuals, including 135 schoolchildren. Such attacks have decreased following the Pakistani army’s counter-terrorism operations, but have recently spiked in 2023. The Afghani Taliban regime helped mediate a ceasefire between the Pakistani Taliban and the Pakistani government following their takeover in 2021, which ended in November of last year. The Pakistani government has been widely criticized for taking collective and indiscriminate punishment against Afghani refugees for Pakistan’s inefficiencies in providing their citizens robust security against domestic terrorist groups.
This decisive and hardline policy by the Pakistani government risks sabotaging their diplomatic relations with the new Taliban government of Afghanistan, which has responded negatively to the forced deportations. Taliban spokesperson Zabihulla Mujahid, called Pakistan’s behaviour towards Afghani refugees `unacceptable, as well as denying all allegations of the Taliban government outsourcing terrorist attacks to Pakistan via refugees. Since the Taliban takeover, Pakistan has been cautious in their diplomatic dealings with the Taliban government, as Pakistan has a history of Taliban insurgency and it would not be in Pakistan’s interests to conflict with the Afghanistan Taliban regime. However, in August 2023, tensions rose between Pakistan and Afghanistan, as Pakistan blamed increased terrorist attacks on the Taliban government directly, resulting in border skirmishes that resulted in the shut-down of the Afghani-Pakistan Torkham border on September 11th, the main trade route between the two. The ongoing deportations will definitely increase tensions between the two countries and may cause more harm than good for Pakistan’s national security.
There are humanitarian concerns that the indiscriminate expulsion of nearly two million refugees may cause unjustified displacement, raising human rights concerns. Many long-term residents, along with their Pakistan-born family members, form a substantial portion of undocumented migrants in Pakistan. They often possess no assets in Afghanistan and include political refugees who have fled the Taliban regime. The Pakistani government has pointed out that this measure only applies to undocumented refugees who do not possess any legal rights in the country. However, authorities have deported refugees holding valid refugee cards, which raises questions about the absence of due process. Amnesty International also points out that due to increased migrations in the past two years, many refugees do not have legal status because of delayed processing.
Afghanistan under the Taliban regime continues to face global isolation and sanctions, which have resulted in an economic crisis that has seized the country with high unemployment and poverty; the influx of hundreds of thousands of displaced refugees may exacerbate the economic crisis and further impoverish the Afghani people. Over 140,000 refugees have left willingly before the November 1st deadline. Many Afghani refugees who have settled in Pakistan hold successful business enterprises and work in key sectors that have provided much-needed economic output for Pakistan, and their removal may be a cause of concern for Pakistan economically.
Pakistan’s security and economic problems are legitimate and urgent concerns that need to be addressed swiftly and appropriately; however, the mass removal of Afghani refugees from Pakistan will not be a magic wand that will fix neither the increased suicide bombings by the Pakistani Taliban or the economic crisis that has been sustained by increased long-term debt and ingrained systemic corruption. Furthermore, being a country that was built on Islamic values and providing a home country for Muslims in Southeast Asia, the deportation of vulnerable Muslim-majority refugees who have happily settled in Pakistan goes against the very essence of the nation’s creation and vision. Rather than seeking to alienate these refugees, Pakistan should establish a system to allow those who wish to integrate and gain citizenship to do so. Whilst undocumented immigration in Pakistan can certainly be a legitimate security concern, it is unwise and unjust for the government to collectively and arbitrarily punish nearly two million people, the vast majority of whom have no connection to the Taliban.
Edited by Elizabeth Kiff
Waleed is a fourth-year Political Science and History student. Being a Pakistani who was born and raised in Saudi Arabia, his third-culture upbringing lends itself to where his areas of interest lie: international relations and politics in the Middle East and South Asia, with a specific interest in imperialism in the Global South.